【How should ordinary investors allocate assets during the "semi-financialization" phase?】

1. First, the conclusion: the core goal of the semi-financialization phase

It's not about making quick money, but about:
Resisting volatility, resisting inflation, avoiding repeated liquidations, while retaining structural opportunities.

The market characteristics in this stage are:
•Weak major trends
•Recurrent fluctuations
•Frequent policy interventions
•Rapid style shifts

👉 Relying on a single asset or a single direction carries high risk.

2. The three biggest pitfalls most ordinary investors fall into

1️⃣ Mistaking volatility for a bull market
•Chasing hot topics
•Full position betting on trends
•Not riding out a wave, then giving it all back

👉 In the semi-financialization stage, trend persistence is insufficient.

2️⃣ Treating "bottom fishing" as normal
•Adding to positions with every dip
•Trying to buy at the lowest point

👉 The result is often:
Missing the bottom, filling the position prematurely.

3️⃣ Fully betting on policies
•Jumping in on good news
•Not taking profits

👉 Policy-driven markets are often "pulse-like," not a long-term bull.

3. A four-layer asset allocation method suitable for ordinary investors

First layer: Safety cushion (~40%)

Purpose: Stay alive + wait for opportunities
•Bank deposits / large-term certificates of deposit
•Money market funds
•Short-duration fixed income, bond funds

Keywords:

No pursuit of yield, only avoiding trouble

Second layer: Stabilizer (20%–30%)

Purpose: Outperform inflation, reduce portfolio volatility
•High-dividend blue-chip stocks
•Utilities, energy, telecommunications
•Dividend indices / low-volatility indices

Keywords:

Cash flow > stories

Third layer: Structural offensive (~20%)

Purpose: Capture stage opportunities from "policy + industry"

Limited directions, repeating these categories:
•High-end manufacturing
•Technological independence (but focus on sub-sectors)
•Energy transition
•Security-related industries

Operational principles:
•Gradual, low-entry, take profits
•No faith-based investing, only rhythm-based

Fourth layer: Hedging and resilience (~10%)

Purpose: Guard against extreme risks, maintain portfolio flexibility
•Gold
•Overseas assets
•Convertible bonds, strategic funds

Keywords:

Not to make money from it, but to sleep well at night

4. Positioning and timing: more important than stock picking

A simple but effective discipline:

Profit from rising with β, profit from falling with time.

• During uptrends: reduce positions, no adding
• During downtrends: no bottom fishing, only dollar-cost averaging
• During sideways markets: rely on dividends and time

5. When can you be "more aggressive"?

Only when all three conditions are met:
1. Extreme pessimism in sentiment
2. Clear policy shift
3. Valuations at historical lows

Otherwise, better to miss out than to heavily bet on the bottom.

6. Underlying mindset for ordinary investors

In the semi-financialization stage,
the biggest gain isn't "getting it right once,"
but "avoiding a few fatal mistakes."

Achieve:
•No margin calls
•No emotional trading
•No frequent sector switches

Already outperforming most people.

Final words

This is an era of "gradual wealth accumulation," not sudden riches.
Only those who can stay at the table long-term have the qualification to talk about opportunities.