Divergence of opinions within the Federal Reserve is intensifying. In last week's rate cut decision, the Federal Open Market Committee's voting results were 9 in favor and 3 against, the highest number of dissenting votes in six years, breaking the Fed's usual tradition of high consensus. Today, several Fed officials will continue to speak, and the market is generally focused on their stance on subsequent policies.

It is worth noting that Fed officials have already indicated that they plan to cut rates only once in 2026, but whether this outlook can be maintained remains a focal point. The non-farm payroll data released yesterday paints a different picture—US non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, indicating a significant slowdown in hiring momentum. Uncertainty around tariff policies and the delayed effects of the high interest rate policies implemented by the Fed from 2022 to 2023 to control inflation are still unfolding, further suppressing employment growth.

Additionally, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission will release the delayed weekly position report tomorrow Beijing time due to the government shutdown. This data is also important for judging the direction of commodities and cryptocurrencies.