There is almost no suspense in the market regarding the Bank of Japan's next move. According to the latest data from the prediction market, the probability of the central bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 98%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is only 2%.
This market consensus is quite firm. The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision on December 19 (Friday), and market participants have already bet real money on a rate hike. Against the backdrop of diverging global central bank policies and persistent inflation pressures, the choice facing the Bank of Japan is actually quite limited—continue to advance monetary policy normalization. Based on current market pricing, investors' consensus on this decision direction is exceptionally high.
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DYORMaster
· 16m ago
98% probability of such a thing, honestly, the feeling of buying and then leaving it, just afraid of a sudden reverse operation
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RamenDeFiSurvivor
· 11h ago
98% probability? That's outrageous. When the market is this certain, things often go wrong.
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DaisyUnicorn
· 11h ago
98% probability? Even if all the flowers have withered, there's still a 2% chance of an unexpected surprise...
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alpha_leaker
· 11h ago
98% chance, is this playing? They should have raised interest rates earlier; Japan has delayed too long.
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blocksnark
· 11h ago
98% confidence, I dare to bet on it. It feels like there's no suspense this time; the Bank of Japan is just going to raise interest rates aggressively.
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UncleWhale
· 11h ago
What does a 98% probability mean? It means the interest rate hike is definitely happening.
There is almost no suspense in the market regarding the Bank of Japan's next move. According to the latest data from the prediction market, the probability of the central bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 98%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged is only 2%.
This market consensus is quite firm. The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision on December 19 (Friday), and market participants have already bet real money on a rate hike. Against the backdrop of diverging global central bank policies and persistent inflation pressures, the choice facing the Bank of Japan is actually quite limited—continue to advance monetary policy normalization. Based on current market pricing, investors' consensus on this decision direction is exceptionally high.