Many people see the yen rate hike as just an interest rate adjustment, but it's actually much more than that. What has Japan relied on for the past thirty years? It’s been the logic of low-interest rate arbitrage. Now, this pillar is collapsing, and it’s not just a cyclical issue; it’s a systemic change. In contrast, the Fed cutting rates is at most a cyclical operation; the two are fundamentally on different levels.

The market generally believes that "the expectations have been priced in," but I think this judgment is too optimistic. The restructuring of yen debt combined with dollar easing is a two-way squeeze. Global capital needs to find new places to go, and this won’t be resolved in a month or two. If rates are really cut, then trillion-dollar arbitrage positions will need to be liquidated—think about the shockwaves that will cause.

What about BTC? It’s a bit awkward right now. In the short term, it still needs to be valued in USD, and during liquidity tightening, it will also be hammered down. But in the long run, its value lies in breaking out of the traditional monetary system; the rules are fixed and won’t change, and institutions have low decision-making costs. This is very attractive to capital that pursues efficiency. The impact of the halving cycle is also gradually weakening, ultimately returning to the core value creation of finance.

My simple idea: survive first, keep risks under control, and then patiently wait for the new cycle’s turning point.