Quantitative fund Capriole founder Charles Edwards recently proposed a thought-provoking view: if Bitcoin does not have quantum resistance by 2028, its price could fall below $50,000.

Does that sound a bit exaggerated? Actually, the logic behind it is like this. Quantum computing theoretically can crack existing encryption algorithms, directly exposing user private keys. This poses a potential threat to the entire blockchain industry and has been a long-term focus within the industry. Edwards' assessment is that this risk window could open by 2028, and if the ecosystem does not respond quickly enough, market confidence could be undermined.

However, there are also voices of skepticism. Opponents believe that practical quantum computing still requires decades to become feasible, and the threat is overstated. Moreover, to be conservative, traditional targets like banks and financial systems do not have encryption strength higher than Bitcoin, so they would face the impact first. This logic also holds up.

The key still depends on how quickly the industry acts. Research and development of quantum-resistant algorithms are already underway, but moving from theory to implementation and then to a network-wide upgrade takes time. 2028 is a reference point, and it could also just be a warning.