#数字资产市场洞察 Yen Arbitrage Game's Endgame

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is imminent, and global markets are holding their breath. Recently, both the Nikkei and the yen plunged simultaneously, with capital already signaling its stance through actions.

Years of zero interest rate policies have made the yen the cheapest financing channel worldwide. Institutions have been borrowing low-interest yen aggressively to exchange for USD, then using the funds to buy US stocks, tech stocks, or even allocate into BTC to profit from exchange rate and yield differentials. But this strategy has a fatal prerequisite: the yen must continue to depreciate.

Now, the turning point has arrived. Once the rate hike expectations materialize, the yen's appreciation pressure will sharply increase, and borrowing costs will skyrocket. Those institutions relying on arbitrage will be forced to close positions—selling assets to repay yen-denominated debts. The flash crash last August still lingers; is history about to repeat itself?

Relying on a single currency for arbitrage is doomed to be short-lived. When central bank policies shift, the entire chain collapses. For retail investors, this presents both risks and opportunities. The key is who can stay clear-headed amid volatility and identify genuine value in allocations.