Good evening everyone. Today I want to talk about the logic behind this recent market movement.

Yesterday, unemployment rate data exploded, hitting a four-year high. By normal logic, this should be a positive signal. But look at BTC’s reaction? Almost no movement. Why? It’s simple—there are still two big bombs waiting to drop this week, and the market has already sensed the risk, with funds avoiding them.

These two events could directly trigger intense volatility:

**Tomorrow night at 21:30, the CPI data**. Higher than expected = clearly bearish; lower than expected = clearly bullish. No middle ground.

**Friday’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision**. A 25 basis point hike (about 70% probability) is basically in line with expectations, with limited volatility; but if the hike is ≥50 basis points (about 30% probability), that’s a real bearish signal, and BTC could directly break below 82,000, with short-term dips not out of the question.

The closer we get to these two time points, the more fragile BTC appears. Panic sentiment will be amplified infinitely. Short-term drops below 85,000 and Ethereum falling toward 2,900 are within the realm of possibility.

But conversely, if the CPI surprises us and the rate hike is moderate, the market could quickly reverse. BTC regaining 90,000 is not just a dream.

In this kind of event-driven and volatile market, the most common mistake is only one: being emotionally driven and cutting losses at the bottom. I’ve seen too many people get liquidated, but cycles always reward those who can stay calm.

My approach is simple: don’t chase highs, stay calm, and save ammunition. When the real black swan arrives, that’s when you’re qualified to buy the dip. Staying calm is always more valuable than passion.