Bitcoin's performance today has indeed been less than ideal. It has been hovering around the $88,000 level all morning, with little movement or momentum from both bulls and bears. Suddenly, around midday, there was a sharp drop, crashing directly to $86,200, then attempting a rebound to $87,200, but failing to hold, and finally slipping further down. The current market is fluctuating slightly around $86,500, and overall, the market has lost its momentum, with everyone remaining cautious.

In simple terms, this "bottoming out - rapid decline - weak rebound - further decline" pattern is essentially a tug-of-war between macro pressures and technical support. The key to breaking this deadlock depends on how the Bank of Japan's upcoming decision unfolds.

From a macro perspective, the market is under pressure from "dual-track tightening," which is also the core reason for Bitcoin's recent weakness. The most concerning factor is the Bank of Japan's stance. At the policy meeting on December 18-19, the probability of a rate hike has soared to 94%. The market consensus expects interest rates to jump from 0.5% directly to 0.75%—a level not seen since 1995. Once this signal was issued, everyone immediately started calculating: if the Bank of Japan actually raises rates, a large amount of yen carry trades will inevitably be closed. Just in December alone, this expectation has already wiped out about 6% of Bitcoin's gains. Even more alarming are historical lessons—during the three previous rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin fell by 20% to 30% each time, so the market's risk aversion remains high.

Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve are also adding to this pressure. Boston Fed President Collins recently stated that the Fed might pause its rate cuts next year. When these two forces collide, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to find a breakthrough in the short term.