#美联储降息 Recently, actions by global central banks have been quite significant, with Japan and the US adopting markedly different policy orientations. Such a situation is rare in the past few decades.

Japan has held back for nearly thirty years, and the market widely expects a major move today—likely a 0.75% rate hike, something not seen since 1995. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is still signaling rate cuts, but its specific implementation roadmap is becoming unclear. The divergence in central bank policies at this scale will inevitably reshape global capital flows.

The first impacted market is the foreign exchange market. Major Asian currencies are already under pressure, with increased volatility. The deeper impact will be on crypto assets. Looking at historical data, after Japan adjusted interest rates three times, Bitcoin experienced a 20%-30% correction within 4 to 6 weeks afterward. The current situation seems to be a replay of history—BTC has already pulled back from previous highs, with the market digesting this expectation in advance.

However, in the long term, the outlook isn’t so bleak. The value proposition of the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, has gradually evolved into a standardized liquidity tool in the eyes of institutional investors. But the key switch still lies in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Once the expectation of an easing cycle is confirmed, a large amount of liquidity will inevitably flow into risk assets, including mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH.

The logic here isn’t complicated: the greater the volatility, the greater the opportunity. During this period of intense macroeconomic shifts, the core strategies can be twofold: first, hold onto proven leading assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB; second, use very small positions to target ecosystem projects with strong narratives and deep community consensus. This dual approach, in a cycle of constantly changing liquidity expectations, often yields good returns.

Particularly worth noting are some frontier assets within the Ethereum ecosystem. Projects with high market consensus and strong community engagement tend to perform unexpectedly well when macro liquidity turns. These assets are characterized by large price swings, but it’s precisely this volatility that can bring the most substantial returns during cycle transitions.

Having said that, I’d like to discuss a few questions with everyone: How much of a ripple effect do you think Japan’s rate hike will trigger? Are you planning to stay on the sidelines or actively deploy while market sentiment is still not overly exuberant?

Looking forward to your thoughts in the comments.