Looking at the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike trajectory over the past two years, Ethereum's downward pace has indeed been very accurate.

In March last year, the Bank of Japan announced the end of its 8-year negative interest rate policy, raising the benchmark rate from -0.1% to 0%. The announcement was made around 11:30 Beijing time that day. The market had already priced in the expectation in advance, but after the official announcement, Ethereum still dropped by 5-10%, and continued to decline in the following days.

At the end of July, there was a 25 basis point rate hike, which was even more aggressive—Ethereum plummeted from around 3300 to about 2100 in one go, a clear panic sell-off.

The most recent was on January 24 of this year, with another 25 basis point increase, and the impact was even harsher. Ethereum entered a week-long sustained downward trend, with daily drops of 6-8%, accumulating a 30% decline over the week. It’s important to note that such consecutive daily bearish candles can be psychologically stressful.

Interestingly, every move by the Bank of Japan seems to become a "weather vane" for the crypto market. The underlying logic might be—Japan raises interest rates → Yen appreciates → Arbitrage positions are closed → Liquidity tightens → High-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) come under pressure. The market is still digesting this round of shocks, and how the rhythm will develop depends on the central bank’s future stance.