Bitcoin is currently caught in a delicate tug-of-war, with macro pressures and technical supports repeatedly battling each other.

The reasons for bearishness are indeed substantial. USD liquidity is tightening, the Federal Reserve's high-interest-rate policy is still in effect, ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT continue to see outflows, and the real yield on the 10-year US Treasury is climbing. Global regulatory constraints are tightening, with MiCA regulations already implemented, and the SEC's ongoing disputes over crypto asset classifications are delaying institutional entry.

But from another perspective, the market has already endured the pain of leverage liquidations. After the cascade collapse in the derivatives market in November, panic sentiment has been fully released.

There are some interesting signals on the technical side. The $85,000-$86,000 range is not arbitrary; previous lows and long-term trend lines are clustered here, making it a critical support level. This level has been tested three times and has not been broken, indicating strong support. Additionally, the daily RSI shows a divergence: prices hit new lows while the RSI indicator is rising, which usually suggests diminishing downward momentum and potential accumulation.

Looking upward, the $92,000-$94,000 zone is a resistance area, requiring increased volume to break through the downward trend since October.

Market liquidity indicators are quite informative. Although institutions have eased their positions somewhat, they haven't truly exited. Miners, on the other hand, are increasing their holdings, with 5% of new positions in November coming from miners. Mining costs are capped at $74,600, providing a layer of cost support below current levels. On-chain data is more straightforward—large holders with 100-1000 BTC are continuously accumulating, while retail investors are panicking and selling off.

Based on these insights, a possible trading approach could be:

If you are more conservative, consider gradually entering in the $85,000-$86,000 range, with each batch not exceeding 20% of your total capital. If the price falls below $82,000, it’s time to exit—don’t gamble. If you can tolerate volatility, wait for a clear volume breakout above $92,000 before adding to your position, but keep your exposure below 15%. Short-term target is $98,000-$100,000, with the medium-term key being the Federal Reserve’s stance—if rate cut expectations materialize, a move toward $110,000 is possible.

Be cautious of sudden regulatory surprises or further tightening of USD liquidity, which could invalidate these support levels. Therefore, strict stop-loss discipline must be maintained without compromise.