2025-12-17 19:21:05

Why does the cryptocurrency market start to stir whenever the US non-farm payroll data is released?

Simply put, the Federal Reserve looks at non-farm payroll data to decide interest rate policies, and interest rate policies directly influence where money flows.

**The Battle for Capital Flows**

Non-farm payroll data includes employment numbers, unemployment rate, and wage growth. If the data looks good (more jobs, lower unemployment), the market may think the Fed will continue to raise rates or delay rate cuts, causing dollar liquidity to tighten. In such a scenario, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—tend to attract funds as investors seek safe havens like the US dollar and US Treasuries. Conversely, if the data is disappointing, expectations for rate cuts will rise, money will loosen up, and investors will be more willing to pour funds into high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

**The Direct Impact of USD Fluctuations**

Strong non-farm payroll data boosts the US dollar index. Since cryptocurrencies are valued in USD, when the dollar appreciates, the USD prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins tend to decrease; on the other hand, if the dollar depreciates, cryptocurrencies become relatively more attractive.

**Shifts in Economic Confidence**

Non-farm payroll data is essentially a barometer of economic health. When the data is positive, market confidence is high, and funds may flow back into stocks and real estate—physical assets. When the data is poor, investors may either hide in safe assets or take a gamble by rushing into the crypto market for high returns—what exactly happens depends on the overall market sentiment at the time.

**But Don’t Take It Too Literally**

The crypto market is highly volatile and influenced by many variables. Regulatory news, sudden industry breakthroughs, or retail investor sentiment shifts can all rewrite the market trend. Non-farm payroll data is just one of many driving forces, and the crypto market’s volatility is much greater than traditional finance, with a stronger speculative nature. So, it’s important to watch the data, but not to rely solely on this one indicator.

BTC3,65%

ETH3,03%

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rugged_again

· 2025-12-18 19:14

Here we go again, as soon as the non-farm payroll data is released, everyone on the internet starts calling for trades. I think it's just funds looking for an excuse to run. Are we really about to get cut by the Federal Reserve this time? How's my BTC doing? Honestly, once regulations come, all data becomes irrelevant. The logic in the crypto world is just so surreal. Non-farm payroll data? It's actually faster to just check the big shots' Twitter updates next door. The dollar's rise and fall have already been reflected long ago. It's a bit late to look at the data now.

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DuskSurfer

· 2025-12-17 19:50

Well, to put it simply, the dollar flow determines the price of the coin. The few hours before and after the non-farm payroll release are the easiest to manipulate. Wake up, everyone. Data is just a cover. Retail investors are always the ones getting cut. Bitcoin can go up or down; it all depends on whether Wall Street is shorting or going long today. No matter what the data says, I just buy low and sell high to profit from the spread. Really? I feel like the crypto world is just gambling now; it has nothing to do with any data. Previously, good news from non-farm payrolls didn't push the coins up, then some big holder tweeted, and it shot up immediately. It's hilarious. The question is, who can accurately predict the Federal Reserve's decisions? I'm really fed up. Every time they say it will fall, it rebounds again. This market is really dark.

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fren.eth

· 2025-12-17 19:49

The cryptocurrency market goes crazy as soon as the non-farm payroll data is released. Honestly, it's still a money issue. Wait, the market drops when the data is good? I still can't understand this logic. Don't just focus on the non-farm payroll; retail investor sentiment can disappear in an instant. The dollar's rise and fall are indeed fierce, but a regulatory blow can make everything pointless. Be afraid that when the data is released, you need to quickly set good stop-losses. When the Fed sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold. It's too damn competitive. It's really just capital looking for an exit, nothing special. Non-farm payroll data probably accounts for at most 10%. Don't over-interpret it. Those who can really make money are the ones who have already positioned themselves in advance. I always arrive late.

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retroactive_airdrop

· 2025-12-17 19:48

Honestly, non-farm payroll data is just a smokescreen; the real factor influencing the price of coins is the sentiment of big funds. Every time there's such hype, retail investors follow suit and get caught in the trap. When the Federal Reserve makes a move, the crypto market trembles—wake up, everyone. Good or bad data can be spun into reasons for price rises or falls, typical armchair strategizing. Instead of studying non-farm payrolls, it's better to focus on the movements of large wallet addresses.

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