Recently, the latest statements from key Federal Reserve officials have attracted widespread market attention, and the policy signals regarding interest rate cuts have become increasingly clear. Let’s take a look at what this really means.

**Core Logic of the Policy Signal**

The current interest rate level is already 50-100 basis points above the neutral rate, indicating that the tightening of monetary policy is quite significant. Officials’ statements are straightforward: as long as inflation prospects ease, the conditions for rate cuts are met. In other words, there’s no need to wait for a clear economic downturn or a sharp rise in unemployment; simply stabilizing inflation is enough to pave the way for rate cuts. This judgment has directly prompted a reaction in the bond market, with U.S. Treasury yields falling accordingly.

**The Subtle Balance Between Employment and Inflation**

Job growth has nearly stalled; although it hasn’t collapsed yet, a softening trend is evident. The long-term impact of AI technology on the job market remains uncertain, and the probability of a rebound in inflation is not high. These factors all point to the need to continue the rate cut process. However, it’s worth noting that the policy stance is one of "moderate pace" easing, not aggressive large-scale cuts. Simply put: rate cuts are coming, but they won’t resemble the flood of monetary easing seen in 2008; instead, a more cautious and precise approach will be adopted.

**Practical Significance for the Market**

From the perspective of policymakers, this stance essentially sets the future direction. A rate cut in 2026 is highly probable, but the pace will not be too rapid. This "steady easing" expectation influences asset pricing globally. Whether it’s stocks, bonds, or digital assets, all need to adapt to this new policy rhythm.

The key moving forward is to closely monitor inflation data and employment reports, as these two indicators will directly determine the actual policy implementation strength. Market participants need to stay flexible and adjust their strategies dynamically based on the evolving economic data.