#加密市场观察 The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 has entered the final coordination stage. Market consensus on rate hikes has further strengthened, with the probability of an increase remaining above 90%. The general expectation is a 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. Previously, the Bank of Japan's quarterly short-term economic outlook survey showed that large manufacturers' confidence rose to a four-year high, with strong wage growth momentum, further supporting the rate hike decision. The pressure for yen arbitrage capital to exit continues to be released. Additionally, global risk asset sentiment has become cautious, and the sustainability of short-term independent cryptocurrency trends is increasingly questioned.

Currently, Bitcoin has completed a correction from the high of 90,336, finding short-term support around 85,278 before oscillating upward. The rally followed by a pullback reflects a cautious market sentiment; Ethereum, supported by the fundamentals of the Fusaka upgrade, stopped falling and rebounded around 2,789, with its anti-dip properties still evident.

Key areas to focus on moving forward include:
1. The implementation of the Bank of Japan's rate hike. If the 25 basis point increase proceeds as expected, it may ease market selling pressure. However, if there are unexpected statements or a 50 basis point hike, it could trigger a new round of corrections;
2. The consistency of Federal Reserve policy signals. Whether hawkish statements from multiple officials form a consensus will directly impact liquidity in risk assets;
3. The tightening of liquidity at the end of the year. Profit-taking behavior by institutions at key levels may intensify short-term volatility.

In summary, the market is currently in a critical period dominated by external tightening expectations. Long-term capital accumulation has built a potential "moat" for the market, but the short-term direction will be determined by tomorrow's Bank of Japan decision. Short-term trading should remain extremely cautious, further reducing trading frequency, focusing on trend opportunities after key price level breakthroughs, and waiting for major events like the Bank of Japan decision to execute precise positioning.