Recent movements by global central banks are indeed quite interesting. Japan and the Federal Reserve are forming a clear divergence in their policy directions, a situation that has been rare in the past few decades.

In Japan, preparations have been underway for a while, and the market widely expects that this time, they might go all out—interest rate hikes could reach 0.75%, something that hasn't been seen since 1995. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to signal expectations of rate cuts, but the specific roadmap for implementation is becoming somewhat unclear. The opposing policies at this scale will inevitably reshape the flow of global capital.

The first to be affected is the foreign exchange market. Major Asian currencies are already feeling the pressure, with volatility clearly increasing. Deeper impacts will eventually transmit to crypto assets. Looking at historical data reveals a pattern: after Japan adjusts interest rates, Bitcoin typically experiences a 20% to 30% correction over the next 4 to 6 weeks. The current scenario seems familiar; BTC has already begun to loosen from its previous highs, indicating that the market is preemptively digesting this expectation.

However, from a long-term perspective, things are not so pessimistic. The crypto market, especially Bitcoin, is gradually being viewed by institutional investors as a standardized liquidity tool. But the real control still lies with the Federal Reserve. Once the expectation of a loosening cycle is confirmed, large amounts of liquidity will inevitably flow back into risk assets, including mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The logic is straightforward: the greater the volatility, the more opportunities there are to hide within it. During this period of intense macroeconomic changes, there are two main strategies. One is to hold steady in well-tested leading assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, holding on tightly without letting go. The other is to use very small positions to ambush strong narrative-driven and community-backed ecosystem projects. Combining these two approaches during cycles of changing liquidity expectations can often lead to impressive results.

Particularly worth watching are some frontier sectors within the Ethereum ecosystem. Projects with high consensus and strong stickiness often outperform expectations when macro liquidity turns. Although these assets tend to be volatile, it is precisely this volatility that can generate the most substantial returns during cycle transitions.