Recently, many friends in the crypto circle have had their mentality collapse, with the top 50 altcoins trading below their prices after the 2022 FTX crash.

BTC, ETH, and SOL have also returned to December 2024 levels.
Many people have almost made no profit in this cycle, and now they are rushing to recover their losses.
Does the four-year cycle still work?
If you believe in the "four-year cycle," we've actually already passed the 18-month mark; logically, the peak should be around here. But the market feels completely different.
Old models are collapsing, and new rules haven't been established yet.
In the past four years, tokens have mostly followed a low circulation + high FDV model.
This year, Polychain sold $240 million worth of TIA, just the tip of the iceberg.
Does anyone blame them?
Actually, who wouldn’t sell when they get unlocked tokens?
Remember the days when tokens would surge as soon as they hit CEX?
That era is completely over.
Everyone in the market is anxious.
The current crypto scene is like a porridge: fresh traders are busy adapting to new rules, memecoin players are fighting each other, founders complain that no one uses their protocols, retail investors shout that the market is too saturated; VCs lament, "The easy money era is gone."
Traditional finance has entered, but they don’t buy our altcoins.
The problem is quite obvious: too many tokens, unnecessary technology, projects that haven't found a market, chaotic tokenomics, airdrops sold into stablecoins, and liquidity thinning out more and more.
After Black Friday, many people "went to zero."
Half of the traders lost everything—retail investors and professional players alike have become poor.
Altcoins have entered a new phase: new coins with high valuations launch, stealing liquidity;
old projects are dragged down and decline.
In the past, everyone said, "As long as conditions are right, tokens will rise," but it's no longer the case.
The market is too crowded, with 3-5 "quality coins" emerging weekly, but who will take the other side?
Without new money, everything is PvP.
Every week, new projects with extremely high FDV flood in.
Unless new buyers step in, the long-term token prices will only decline.
Current capital inflows have become extremely selective, unable to offset the selling pressure caused by large unlocks.
A small suggestion ( sincerely )
The market may be bad, but skills must improve.
Whether it's trading, networking, writing, or sales, find a direction you can develop long-term.
When the market isn't rising, at least you are still growing.