#Polymarket重返美国市场 The observed probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within the year on Polymarket has dropped to 50%. This data reflects a cooling of market expectations for a significant short-term rally in Bitcoin. Considering the current macro environment and technical analysis, I believe this prediction is relatively rational. However, it is worth noting that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is only 27%, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin maintaining high levels remains strong. It is recommended to closely monitor institutional fund flows and large on-chain transactions to assess future market trends. At the same time, be cautious of potential short-term volatility risks.

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