On Friday afternoon, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Market consensus has already formed—an expected 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, with a probability approaching 95%. If true, this will mark the highest level since 1995 and signifies the official end of the "super-low interest rate" era by the Bank of Japan.

Why does the BOJ feel confident to do this? Three sets of data speak volumes: First is inflation pressure. Core CPI has exceeded the 2% target for 28 consecutive months, and in October, it directly broke through 3.0%, significantly weakening the yen's purchasing power. Second is wage growth. Nominal wages rose by 2.6% in October, surpassing market expectations, creating a spiral of rising prices and wages, forcing the central bank to act. Third is the pressure on the yen. Previously depreciated to 157.9, import prices continue to rise, and with the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential, it’s difficult for the BOJ to curb the downward trend without raising rates.

More notably, insiders at the Bank of Japan believe that 0.75% is still far from the target. Their target range is 1%-2.5%, and the current rate hike is just the beginning, with significant room for future adjustments. This signal has obvious implications for the global financial markets—liquidity environments may face new shifts.

The cryptocurrency market has already experienced intense volatility under this expectation. BTC briefly surged to $90,000 before plunging back to around $85,000. According to statistics, about 150,000 traders were liquidated, with losses totaling $530 million. Market participants seem to be preemptively digesting the central bank’s tightening policy expectations, and liquidity has become noticeably tighter.