Last night’s non-farm payroll report was released on time, but to be honest, it wasn’t that impressive.

On the surface, the data looked good—employment exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years. This kind of combination should be favorable for a rate cut in January, but the market didn’t react much. The probability of a rate cut in January on Polymarket is only 23%, and CME is about 24%, with hardly any response.

Why is that?

The most realistic reason, first of all, is the long-term government shutdown caused by previous issues. The data collection itself is somewhat unreliable; this non-farm report is more of a market sentiment indicator than a solid decision-making reference.

The second, more critical point—before the January FOMC meeting, the December non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate have not yet been announced. Those are the real data points that can determine the rate cut trajectory. So you’ll see an interesting phenomenon: after the non-farm report is released, sensitive assets like Bitcoin fluctuate; but while the Nasdaq has risen, tech stocks perform relatively flat, and are even more sensitive to liquidity expectations.

Another variable that the market interprets as positive is the unfolding of the Federal Reserve chair candidate issue.

Waller’s chances have been steadily declining and are now down to 22%. Conversely, Haskett has returned to a high of 54%. The key turning point was when the White House revealed that Trump would interview Waller, turning the original two-way race into a three-way contest. Waller and Wosh have almost identical policy stances, both being the "steady" type acceptable on Wall Street, which resulted in Waller siphoning some votes from Wosh.

On the other hand, Haskett has recently emphasized the "independence of the Federal Reserve" and is actively campaigning for support. The underlying message is clear: don’t doubt me just because I have a good relationship with Trump.