Someone asked why the impact of interest rate hikes in Japan on Bitcoin is so limited. Once you see through this, it becomes clear.

What truly suppresses BTC's movement are not interest rate policies, but two deeper issues. First, the AI bubble is gradually bursting, and the long-term decline in A-shares has become a signal — market risk appetite is decreasing. Second, there is a shift in market narrative. Investors' confidence in Bitcoin has experienced a phased shake, and funds are starting to look for other opportunities.

What is the most critical variable here? Whether funds like MicroStrategy can continue to hold. If BTC cannot stabilize in the long term, causing the NAV( asset net value) of such institutions to remain below 1, they will be forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings, which would be the true start of a sharp decline.

In the short term, BTC breaking below 81,000 and Ethereum falling toward 2,500 are already quite extreme levels. Negative news usually marks the beginning of a rebound. What we really need to watch out for is whether the current downward trend can continue over the next two weeks — if it can be halted, there is still a chance from Christmas to the Spring Festival.