ETH's recent trend has validated the previous analysis. The bearish setup around 3000 on December 16 has now achieved its target—2800 has become a reality. Looking back at the monthly, weekly, and even daily charts, the overall pattern remains weak. Especially with the daily MACD forming a death cross below the zero line, this is already a clear bearish signal.

The macro environment is also paving the way for a decline. The market has traditionally been cautious on Christmas Eve, coupled with the relentless pace of Japanese rate hikes and signs of a major institution offloading, all of which are weighing down the price.

Interestingly, there are contradictions in the data. Sentiment indicators show widespread fear in the market, but the ratio of bulls to bears has reached 2.7:1—meaning there are still quite a few voices calling for a bottom. These two pieces of information somewhat contradict each other, indicating that some market participants are indeed betting on a rebound.

From a trading perspective, the bearish side still holds the advantage, but the exact timing of entry is less certain. In the short term, 2870 is a possible testing level, while the range above 2900 to 2920 is a clearer resistance zone and an ideal entry point for shorts. However, this small wave has already declined in three waves, and with policy factors like rate hikes, no one can predict how it will unfold. So, exercising caution is never a bad idea.