The core impacts of the four major CPI data points (Priority: Core Monthly Rate > Core Yearly Rate > CPI Monthly Rate > CPI Yearly Rate):

1. CPI below expectations (cooling inflation): The market will reinforce expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and expanding its balance sheet, leading to a weakening dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields. Profit-seeking funds will flow from low-risk assets into cryptocurrencies. Mainstream coins will lead the rally due to fading risk aversion and liquidity injection, while altcoins will rebound in response to increased risk appetite, potentially experiencing "short squeeze" type rapid gains (shorts forced to cover fueling the rise).

2. CPI in line with expectations: No new variables in policy expectations, market has already priced in the data impact, resulting in overall narrow fluctuations in cryptocurrencies. Funds mostly wait between stablecoins and mainstream coins, volatility quickly subsides, and no clear trend emerges in the short term, with only minor fluctuations driven by localized positive/negative ecosystem news.

3. CPI above expectations (sticky inflation): The market will worry that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or delay easing, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity. Investors will withdraw from cryptocurrencies to avoid risks. Mainstream coins will face downward pressure, high leverage longs are prone to trigger chain liquidations, exacerbating declines; altcoins, with weaker liquidity, usually fall more than mainstream coins, and funds will flow back into stablecoins or dollar assets.

Mainstream coins: Most directly affected by macro liquidity, serving as a "safe haven + barometer" of funds. They respond fastest after CPI data release, with relatively controlled volatility. Institutional fund inflows and outflows will dominate short-term trends.

Altcoins: More sensitive to risk appetite. In a "positive CPI + weak employment" easing scenario, they may surge far beyond mainstream coins; in a "negative CPI + strong employment" tightening scenario, they may fall more sharply, and less liquid tokens could experience "flash crashes."

Previously, whenever U.S. economic data was released, the crypto market would instantly surge or plummet—traders' paradise or hell in an instant, with spot prices also rollercoastering. Tonight’s data, if significantly different from forecasts, will definitely cause explosive market reactions regardless of whether the news is positive or negative! Now, it all depends on the moment the data is revealed—whether it will be a "stimulant" for the crypto market or a "cold shower." Those holding positions should watch the data closely and not blink; those wanting to enter should wait until the direction is clear after the data is released.

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