#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Ethereum Evening Market Review:

To be honest, the current trend really doesn't inspire much trading desire. Looking at the hourly chart, Ethereum needs to break out of the wedge to turn upward; otherwise, it can only oscillate within the wedge repeatedly. Once it breaks through, the previous 2885 level becomes critical—having held it four times before, it was only broken on the fifth attempt. Its role has shifted from support to resistance. Want to break through 2885 in one go? Unless there is a major positive catalyst, it's quite difficult. After all, it took five attempts to break down during the decline, so reversing and breaking through might require about three tries to truly stabilize.

If Ethereum can break through 2885, the hourly downtrend will be considered halted. Next, watch the 2926 level, then higher at 2967. If a pullback occurs, do not let the wedge break downward; once it does, it will need to retest the previous low of 2788. I think that low might not hold this time and could potentially hit a new low.

Trading strategy: Consider going long if there's a volume breakout above 2853. Conversely, if it drops below 2829 with volume, consider shorting. The key is to monitor volume changes closely and set proper stop-losses.

Switching to the exchange rate perspective: Why was Ethereum so strong a few days ago, but has weakened recently? Just look at its USD exchange rate to understand. On the daily chart, after a false breakout above 0.03605, it faced resistance and pulled back, closing with a bearish engulfing candle, then started to adjust. The correction found support at the upper boundary of the wedge and rebounded, but when it reached 0.03465, it couldn't hold, and another daily bearish engulfing candle appeared, pushing it back inside the wedge. With such a weak exchange rate, how can Ethereum perform strongly? It's like running with your wife—just avoiding a fall is already good.

Currently, the exchange rate is barely holding on with support from the lower boundary of the wedge and the 0.03273 level. If these two supports are broken, it will test 0.03090. In other words, Ethereum's price can't rise much because the exchange rate is dragging behind. The CPI data released at 9:30 PM tonight is worth paying attention to—let's see if it can bring a turning point to this market.