#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US will release two data points—Core CPI and Initial Jobless Claims. Don’t be fooled by just two sets of numbers; the crypto market could experience significant volatility as a result.

The monthly core CPI is expected to remain around 3.1%. But what if the actual data surges higher? That would mean inflation isn’t cooling off as easily, and the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates in 2026 could be further squeezed. Once priced in this way, the dollar rebounds, US Treasury yields rise, and stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies all get hammered, with downward pressure becoming frighteningly intense. Conversely, what if the CPI unexpectedly drops? The market could go into a frenzy, the idea of “inflation peaking” instantly revived, traders rubbing their hands in anticipation of rate cuts, and risk assets might see a nice rebound.

More importantly, the Initial Jobless Claims indicator provides a direct view of whether the employment market is cooling or heating up. A sudden sharp increase in claims indicates the economy is indeed cooling down, prompting the market to consider whether the Fed might loosen policy earlier. In the short term, this could actually push risk assets higher—the magical logic of “bad data is good news” appears. But if employment data remains strong, it means the Fed’s hawkish stance continues, which is purely bearish for highly sensitive assets like $BTC and $ETH.

Wall Street and the crypto world are both on edge right now; any deviation can trigger large market swings. In simple terms, the data is just a trigger; behind it is the long-term tug-of-war between inflation and employment. It’s recommended to keep positions light, manage risk properly, and not be led by single-day results. Tonight’s outcome is very likely to set the tone for the entire 2026 start.