Analysis of the bearish cycle: Why MET and MMT indicate increased caution

The current dynamics of the crypto markets, particularly visible on MET and MMT, force us to rethink our strategy. We are no longer debating the possibility of a correction but rather the actual magnitude it could reach. One month of continuous decline with increasing intensity suggests that we could be facing a more prolonged bearish trajectory than initially forecasted.

The technical signals that raise concerns

The technical architecture has completely disintegrated across all timeframes. The daily chart has given way, followed by the weekly, then the monthly. The four-year structure, once solid, now shows significant flaws. BTC has crossed the symbolic threshold of 100,000 USDT, but the rebound that followed appears more like a micro-correction than a true reallocation. This type of “anemic rebound” is traditionally the prelude to an intensified bearish phase.

The paradox of funding rates

An counterintuitive element deserves special attention: the perpetual funding rates of BTC and ETH remain in positive territory despite widespread panic. This reveals a troubling reality — long positions still dominate the market. This persistence suggests that speculative bubbles have not yet reached their breaking point, and the accumulation of systemic risk continues to intensify.

The volume trap

The multitude of buyers attempting to build positions at the lows creates a misleading illusion. Historical experience is clear: the more attempts at “buying back” are numerous and noisy, the more likely the market is to continue its descent. True market lows have three distinct characteristics: media indifference, the absence of opportunistic buyback strategies, and exhaustion of volume on perpetual contracts. None of these conditions are present today.

Macro-economic context and retreating liquidity

The external environment adds a layer of complexity. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the United States and other powers, could trigger capital outflows toward safer assets. Small investors risk serving as liquidity providers in the face of large capital movements. Since mid-October, capital flows have been heading out, market liquidity is contracting week after week, and new entrants are slow to arrive.

Strategy in the face of uncertainty

The current situation dictates a binary approach: patient observation or minimal positions in the spot market for occasional tests. Any leverage use becomes a Russian roulette in a degraded liquidity environment — a single black candle is enough to wipe out poorly protected positions.

Media sentiment, which screams “buying opportunity,” paradoxically remains one of the most cautious signals. The true market bottom only arrives when these voices fall silent. As long as the “bullish” discourse persists, the risk of further downside remains high. MET and MMT, like the entire sector, must first demonstrate a technical restructuring before any credible rebound.

The optimal approach remains disciplined waiting. No visible trend reversal, no reliable accumulation signal — this context demands restraint.