#大户持仓动态 Year-end market conditions are, as usual, about to deliver a thriller.

Next Friday (December 26), a $23 billion Bitcoin options expiry is imminent, accounting for a significant portion of open interest in the entire market. At such critical junctures, price volatility tends to be amplified, especially when the market itself is already tense.

Recently, traders' sentiment has been somewhat delicate.

From a technical perspective, the 30-day volatility has rebounded to around 45%, indicating that the market is stirring; the options skew remains stable at -5%, reflecting investors' concerns about downside risk. This worry is not unfounded—some large wallets that had been dormant have recently started to move again, continuously selling off, exerting ongoing pressure on the spot price, which has caused many to worry about the outlook for Q1 and Q2.

However, pessimistic voices are not the mainstream.

Clues can be seen from the options positioning: bullish players are betting on key levels of $100,000 to $120,000, clearly still betting on a rebound by the end of the year; bears are mainly focused on defending around $85,000, a typical defensive stance.

There are two things to watch next:

MSCI will announce its decision on January 15— they might remove companies with over 50% crypto asset holdings from the index, which could trigger a new round of market turbulence; additionally, funds covering call options are flowing back into the market, making price movements quite unpredictable.

Ultimately, this $23 billion options expiry acts like a fuse that could change Bitcoin's next trajectory. The battle between bulls and bears at this moment is more intense than ever—either breaking upward or continuing to retrace, the suspense is gradually surfacing in these coming days.