The US November CPI data was just released, and the market reaction was quite swift. After the figures came out, traders' bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January next year immediately heated up — the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate on the futures market jumped from 26.6% to 28.8%. Although the increase doesn't seem particularly large, the direction is very clear: as long as inflation shows some signs of cooling, the story of rate cuts can be told more smoothly.

Interestingly, there may still be some suspense in the short term, but traders have long since placed their bets on longer-term easing. According to LSEG data, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to loosen about 64 basis points throughout 2026, up slightly from 63 basis points before the data was released. What does this indicate? It shows that the market is confident about the shift in liquidity.

What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market? First, any signs of inflation cooling can become leverage for the rate cut narrative. The market won't miss any opportunity to reinforce expectations of easing. Second, this "easing trade" is gradually taking shape — pricing in liquidity in advance is one of the core logical supports for risk asset sentiment right now. Lastly, don’t forget that if upcoming Fed officials' speeches and other economic data continue to reinforce this trend, it could very well be the trigger that breaks the current consolidation in the crypto market.