The market indeed enters a tug-of-war phase, which looks quite uncomfortable.

Bitcoin repeatedly tests the 85,000-87,000 range; when it was pushed up to around 89,000 in the early session, I thought there was a chance, but it quickly dropped back below 86,000. Trading volume is sluggish, and liquidation events occur frequently. The Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at the extreme fear level of 17.

Ethereum's situation is even worse, repeatedly breaking through the $2800 threshold. Altcoins are collectively in the red, with Layer2 sectors and various MEME coins experiencing shocking declines. Where is the root cause? The Bank of Japan just completed a 25 basis point rate hike, and the trend of unwinding Yen carry trades is clear. Risk assets are being sold off first and foremost.

During Christmas, with options settlement (Deribit platform holding $2.3 billion in open positions), institutions and retail investors are fighting each other. The former quietly accumulates at low levels—although ETF inflows are small, they are far from enough to support the market—while the latter are being forced to cut losses.

Hardcore holders like MicroStrategy are still accumulating, but market sentiment has already dissipated. From the all-time high of 126,000, a 32% retracement, no one dares to boast that the "bull market is not over," instead, everyone is debating whether the "four-year cycle will break."

This is a common problem in the late stage of a bull market—those shouting HODL are already holding profit-taking orders, bulls are betting that "the final peak is the last escape opportunity," and bears are waiting to "add heavy positions once bear signals appear." The market is like indecisive retail investors, swaying whichever way the wind blows.

For now, don't expect a rally during Christmas. If 85,000 can't hold, then the next focus will be support levels at 80,000 or even lower.