#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 December 19 Midday Market Analysis

**$BTC Trend Breakdown**

Bitcoin broke above 86138 last week, forming a solid close, which is a clear bullish signal. Entering long positions from this level is a good choice, but don’t forget to set your stop-loss. Conversely, if 85261 drops with volume, and there’s no significant rebound, then it’s time to go short, with proper risk control. On a finer scale, 83446 is a false breakdown level; if you want to go long, you can add a position here, but if the false breakdown low or 82331 is broken, stop-loss is necessary. In any case, if it cannot recover, don’t hold a dead-long position.

On the hourly level, if Bitcoin stays above 86851, the target range is 87195 to 88018. If it cannot break above 86851, don’t expect a rally. For those looking to short, note that 88018 may see a second fake breakout; you can short here, but if it truly breaks and stabilizes above 89255, take the loss. More conservative traders might wait for a pullback to 82280 before entering long, with a stop-loss at 80602 if broken.

The market review is interesting — Bitcoin repeated the pattern from the night before yesterday. After breaking the flag pattern, two retests of the upper boundary confirmed support, followed by a rally. However, each rally was blocked around 89500, and on the hourly level, a shooting star pattern and bearish engulfing appeared, which is a warning sign. Next, a series of declines followed, breaking the flag and the previous low of 85000, creating a new low — not a good sign.

The key now is whether Bitcoin can regain stability above 86865 (hourly support line). To truly reverse, it must break through 89501; if it can’t, don’t expect a turnaround. Why is 89501 such a strong resistance? Because this decline started after breaking below 89501 — a classic support-resistance switch, making the pressure intense.

If the rebound cannot hold above 86865, prepare to test the previous low; if support fails, look around 80,000. As long as it doesn’t break below 80,000, the situation remains relatively safe.

Resistance levels: 86865-87195-88018
Support levels: 85620-85076-84401
Four-hour: If 85219 breaks, watch 84358-83497

**$ETH Short-term Strategy**

Ethereum broke above 2910 with volume, so you can enter long on the right side, remember to set a stop-loss. If 2877 drops with volume, then short, with strict stop-loss enforcement.

A pullback to 2808 confirms support; you can add a position here, but if it breaks 2774, stop-loss. If it stabilizes above 2925 on the hourly level, target 2966-3032. Watch out for the 2980 level above, which may offer a short opportunity; if shorted, a break above 3032 means taking the loss.

Order traders on the left side can consider long positions at 2756, with a stop-loss at 2718.

Resistance levels: 2925-2966-3022
Support levels: 2862-2810-2774
Four-hour: If 2883 breaks, watch 2807-2774

More details are welcome in the comments.