Bitcoin halves every four years, and the entire community seems to be staging a grand cyclical drama. Let's take a look at how this classic cycle unfolds:

In the first year, the halving information is released—supply decreases, and everyone starts hinting that 'the market is about to start.' By the second year, prices indeed rise, doubling and doubling again, with everyone rushing to get on board. We see endless 'moon' posts and various optimistic forecasts on Weibo, X, and WeChat Moments. By 2.5 years in, veterans are shouting 'this time is really different,' newcomers believe it, leverage up, chase after air coins... The entire market reaches a frenzy peak. In the third year, the peak appears, smart money quietly exits, while the remaining investors comfort themselves with 'just a mid-term break.' By the fourth year, a bear market hits, prices fall repeatedly, and people huddle together, encouraging each other with 'hold long-term, see you in four years.'

Then, a new halving cycle begins, and the entire script repeats from the start.

What’s interesting after the 2024 halving is that everyone expected the usual pattern, but suddenly a group of institutional players in suits stormed in with ETF buses, taking over the scene and grabbing much of the retail FOMO narrative. As a result, the bull market became less crazy, and the dips weren’t as severe. The overall rhythm slowed down significantly.

Interestingly, the community still chants 'this time is really different'—but this time, it really is a bit different. The director of the halving remains the same, but the leading actors have changed. The previous frenzy of leverage and retail retail investors has been replaced by steady institutional capital inflows. The bull market still surges, but without the previous madness; the bear market will still come, but the declines may not be as despairing.

Halving will always be the market’s director. The cast changes for a new round, but the tickets still sell out as usual.