The Reshaping of Global Rare Earth Metals Supply: Where Will the Next Mining Boom Come From?

As clean energy and advanced technology continue driving unprecedented demand for rare earth metals, the world’s mining landscape is undergoing seismic shifts. While China maintains its iron grip on production, a new wave of countries is preparing to challenge this dominance. Understanding the geographic distribution of rare earth reserves reveals a critical insight: many nations sitting on massive stockpiles remain dramatically underutilized.

The Supply Chain Paradox: Reserves Don’t Equal Production

The disconnect between reserves and actual output tells a compelling story. Brazil, for instance, holds the world’s second-largest rare earth metals reserves at 21 million metric tons—yet produced virtually nothing in 2024. This gap represents the future battleground of the industry.

Global rare earth metals reserves total 130 million metric tons, while 2024 production reached just 390,000 metric tons. The math is sobering: at current extraction rates, confirmed reserves could supply the world for centuries. But scarcity isn’t about geology—it’s about infrastructure, investment, and geopolitics.

This mismatch has created a vacuum. Serra Verde’s Pela Ema project in Brazil exemplifies the shift underway. Launching commercial production in early 2024, the operation expects to reach 5,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide annually by 2026, becoming the only non-Chinese source producing all four critical magnet rare earth metals: neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium.

China’s Stranglehold on Rare Earth Metals: 44 Million Metric Tons and Counting

China dominates with 44 million metric tons in reserves, producing 270,000 metric tons in 2024—nearly 70% of global output. This supremacy didn’t happen by accident; Beijing has strategically built stockpiles while clamping down on illegal mining and export competition.

The country’s 2010 export restrictions sent rare earth prices skyrocketing and taught Western nations a harsh lesson about supply chain vulnerability. Today, China continues playing hardball, banning rare earth magnet technology exports to the US in late 2023 while simultaneously importing heavy rare earth metals from Myanmar—a move that raises environmental red flags.

Yet even China’s reserves face pressure. The nation has implemented stricter environmental enforcement at home, shifting some extraction to less-regulated neighbors. The mountains along the China-Myanmar border bear the scars: rare earth mining has ravaged the landscape, with 2,700 identified illegal in-situ leaching pools as of mid-2022 covering an area the size of Singapore.

India’s Hidden Asset: 6.9 Million Metric Tons of Untapped Potential

India represents perhaps the most underrated player in rare earth metals. With 6.9 million metric tons in reserves and nearly 35% of the world’s beach and sand mineral deposits, the country produces only 2,900 metric tons annually—a fraction of its potential.

The Indian government has started moving. December 2022 saw New Delhi outline its rare earth metals production and refining roadmap, followed by policy initiatives in late 2023 to support research and development. October 2024 marked another milestone: Trafalgar announced plans for India’s first rare earth metals, alloy, and magnet manufacturing plant, signaling Delhi’s commitment to vertical integration.

Australia’s Emergence as a Non-Chinese Powerhouse

Australia holds 5.7 million metric tons in reserves and produced 13,000 metric tons in 2024, but the real story lies ahead. Lynas Rare Earths operates the Mount Weld mine and runs the world’s largest non-Chinese rare earth metals refining operation. A planned Mt Weld expansion completion in 2025 will boost capacity, while the new Kalgoorlie processing facility began production in mid-2024.

Hastings Technology Metals’ Yangibana project is equally promising. Now “shovel ready” with an offtake agreement secured, the operation is expected to produce up to 37,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrate annually, with first deliveries targeted for Q4 2026. These projects represent genuine alternatives to Chinese rare earth metals supply.

Russia: 3.8 Million Metric Tons in Limbo

Russia’s rare earth metals reserves dropped dramatically from 10 million metric tons in 2023 to 3.8 million metric tons in 2024, reflecting revised USGS estimates based on company and government reports. Production remained flat at 2,500 metric tons annually.

Moscow’s grand plans—a US$1.5 billion investment announced in 2020 to rival China—have stalled. Ukraine’s invasion has forced Russia to deprioritize rare earth metals sector development, leaving this strategic asset on ice indefinitely.

Vietnam’s Reversal: From 22 Million to 3.5 Million Metric Tons

Vietnam experienced a stunning recalibration. USGS downgraded estimates from 22 million metric tons in 2023 to 3.5 million metric tons in 2024, based on updated company and government data. Production cratered to 300 metric tons, a fraction of the nation’s stated 2030 goal of 2.02 million metric tons.

The culprit? October 2023 saw the arrest of six rare earth metals executives, including Vietnam Rare Earth (VTRE) chairman Luu Anh Tuan, on allegations of tax fraud. The incident exposed vulnerabilities in Vietnam’s mining governance and cast doubt on production timelines.

The United States Paradox: Second in Output, Seventh in Reserves

America’s rare earth metals situation presents a curious contradiction. Despite producing 45,000 metric tons in 2024—second globally—US reserves rank only seventh at 1.9 million metric tons. California’s Mountain Pass mine, operated by MP Materials, remains the sole domestic source.

MP Materials is building downstream capabilities at its Fort Worth facility to convert rare earth oxide into magnets and precursor products, attempting vertical integration. The April 2024 Department of Energy announcement of US$17.5 million for rare earth metals processing from coal by-products signals Washington’s determination to reduce dependency on Chinese supply chains.

Greenland’s Untapped Prize: 1.5 Million Metric Tons and Geopolitical Intrigue

Greenland holds 1.5 million metric tons in rare earth metals reserves but currently produces nothing. Two major projects—Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld—could change this trajectory. Critical Metals completed its Tanbreez acquisition in July 2024 and commenced drilling in September to validate the resource.

Energy Transition Minerals faces regulatory hurdles with Kvanefjeld. Greenland’s government revoked the license due to uranium exploitation concerns, and subsequent amended plans have also faced rejection. As of October 2024, the company awaits a court ruling on its appeal.

Notably, Donald Trump has signaled interest in Greenland’s rare earth metals reserves. However, Greenland’s Prime Minister and Denmark’s King have made abundantly clear: Greenland is not for sale.

Why Rare Earth Metals Matter More Than Ever

Seventeen naturally occurring elements comprise the rare earth metals family—15 lanthanides plus yttrium and scandium. They’re essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, and military applications. Neodymium and praseodymium power magnets; terbium and dysprosium enhance magnet performance; and phosphor rare earths like europium illuminate modern displays.

Mining remains technically challenging and environmentally costly. In-situ leaching, the dominant extraction method outside China, pumps chemical solutions into ore bodies to dissolve rare earth metals into brine—but also creates radioactive waste streams. Open-pit mining requires extensive ore separation, a process so chemically intensive that achieving high purity levels demands hundreds or thousands of extraction cycles.

The environmental toll has been severe. Landslides in China’s Ganzhou region exceed 100, traced directly to mining operations. Myanmar’s mountains show comparable devastation, with contaminated groundwater and dying wildlife now commonplace in mining zones.

The Investment Thesis: Fragmentation Creates Opportunity

Global production climbed from roughly 100,000 metric tons a decade ago to 390,000 metric tons in 2024—a four-fold increase reflecting surging demand. Yet this expansion still falls short of projected needs, particularly for heavy rare earth metals.

The critical takeaway: rare earth metals reserves and production capacity remain dangerously concentrated. Diversification across Brazil, India, Australia, and the United States offers insurance against supply shocks. Companies developing non-Chinese rare earth metals extraction and processing—especially those producing all four critical magnet elements—are positioning themselves for substantial value creation as the energy transition accelerates.

Whether through geographic arbitrage, downstream integration, or technological innovation in separation processes, the next decade will determine which nations and corporations capture this emerging opportunity.