Tonight's rally in the crypto market is unlikely to continue steadily and is more likely to experience high-level consolidation; according to Jin10 data, the recent overall sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, with more downside momentum being sustained and upside mostly short-term corrections.

1. Will tonight's rally continue (as of December 20, 4:00 AM)

- Core judgment: Tonight's rally is highly likely to peak and then retreat or consolidate within a range, making a smooth one-way upward trend difficult to form.
- Key basis:
1. Technical analysis: BTC faces significant resistance at $88,500-$89,000, with the daily moving averages still suppressing upward movement. Initial support is at $87,000, with strong support at $86,000-$85,000.
2. Capital and sentiment: The rally is mainly short-term emotional correction. Institutions and whales are still controlling the market. Liquidity is tightening before Christmas, leading to increased volatility, but the trend is unlikely to extend.
3. Macro and regulatory factors: US regulatory bills are progressing, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are fluctuating, lacking strong catalysts to sustain the rally.

2. Recent bullish and bearish judgments according to Jin10 data (12.17-12.20)

- Bullish: The Bank of Japan's rate hike has been implemented (short-term negative sentiment exhausted); some funds are flowing in due to year-end liquidity expectations; technical oversold rebound.
- Bearish: US crypto regulation bill will be submitted to the Senate in January 2026, prolonging regulatory pressure; BTC weekly trend is weakening, with large on-chain addresses reducing holdings; US stock market volatility transmits risk, and risk appetite remains unstable.
- Conclusion: Neutral leaning slightly bearish, with more downside momentum, and short-term upside corrections.

3. Short-term trading suggestions

1. Position control: Keep single asset positions at ≤30%, retain cash to respond to pullbacks.
2. Range trading: If BTC encounters resistance at 88,500-89,000, reduce positions; if it pulls back to 86,000-85,000 and stabilizes, lightly attempt long positions.
3. Stop-loss: Exit immediately if falling below 85,000 to avoid deep losses.