#数字资产市场洞察 Japan just implemented a rate hike, and the US stock market and crypto circle rebounded for a day. This is normal—the bad news has already occurred, and the rebound is an expected adjustment. But the question is, have all the negative factors been fully priced in? Not necessarily. Looking at the Federal Reserve, the probability of a rate cut in January is currently only 24.8%, indicating that the market is still on the sidelines. I’ve noticed a pattern: on the day Japan raises interest rates, the market usually doesn’t fall sharply (unless the rate hike day falls at the end of the month), and actual declines tend to come about a week later. The last rate hike on 1.23 also saw a rebound on the day, but a big drop followed a week later. So now, risk prevention is key.

Some analysts online say that BTC could hit 100,000 next week. I think this might be a bit too optimistic. Looking at the daily Bollinger upper band, it’s around 94,150, still some distance from 100,000. During this period, the bullish and bearish views are quite divided, and everyone is betting on the next move.

The key information points to watch are:

December 24 (Wednesday): Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes;
December 25 (Thursday): US stock market will be closed, and Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chair;
December 26 (Friday): Japan’s December CPI data.

These three days will bring significant information. In the short term, volatility could be as intense as this week, with both rebounds and sharp drops possible. Both bulls and bears need to stay alert.

Looking at the candlestick chart, BTC fell below the 4-hour Bollinger lower band at 84,408 the night before last, then quickly rebounded yesterday. It is now oscillating near the upper band at around 89,350. The 84,400 level is still the lower band of the 10-day Bollinger, which showed a sign of stopping the decline. The lowest point of this week was near that level. Currently, the price is fluctuating around 89,350, and all smaller time frame indicators below 1 hour are above the zero line, making the market a bit more energetic than the past two days.

Next week’s main resistance levels (possible short-term short points) are: 89,385, 89,515, 90,185, and 90,750. If 90,750 is broken, then we’ll need to watch 92,250, 93,050, 94,150, and 94,250.

On the 12-hour and daily charts, there are signs of a rebound, with potential peaks around 88,800 and 89,385.

Another risk that cannot be ignored is that in the next two weeks, the 15-day and 20-day MACD will cross the zero line successively. When these MACDs reset, they will test support levels below 80,000, which could become potential bottoming zones. Further detailed analysis will be provided then.