#美联储降息政策 Seeing the data that the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December is as high as 93%, I recall recent conversations with several investors. Everyone is focused on what opportunities a rate cut may bring, but I want to remind you that what is truly worth paying attention to may not be the rate cut itself.

From the information available, the core focus of the market has shifted to the Fed's balance sheet operations—whether new liquidity will be injected. This is interesting because it reflects a deeper issue: **liquidity is quietly tightening**.

Data shows that the open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has dropped by 40-50% compared to October, with retail sentiment returning to bear market levels. At the same time, as the end of the year approaches, market depth continues to deteriorate, and any slight movement could trigger severe fluctuations. In such an environment, my advice is quite simple:

**First, review your positions.** When liquidity hits the bottom, even high-quality assets can be easily shaken by short-term fluctuations. Ensure that the size of your positions is manageable.

**Second, be wary of the year-end holiday effect.** During periods of shrinking trading volume and declining participation, irrational fluctuations are often likely to occur. This is not a good time to chase returns.

**Third, a long-term mindset is the most valuable.** I noticed that long-term funds are quietly accumulating shares while retail investors are exiting - this is the difference in mindset.

During the interest rate cut cycle, those who truly make money are not necessarily the ones chasing trends, but rather those who adhere to discipline and have a reasonable allocation.