The United States is facing another government shutdown. With just over a month left until the funding deadline on January 30, 2026, both parties in Congress are at an impasse—this time over the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. The Democrats want to protect healthcare coverage for about 24 million people, while the Republicans are adamantly opposed, each looking to use the shutdown as a political weapon against the other. This sounds very familiar, as we just experienced a record 43-day shutdown last October.

To be honest, the resilience of the U.S. economy is not very strong right now. The growth forecast is only 1.4%, inflation is stuck at 3.1%, and the unemployment rate is about to hit 4.5%. The last 6-week shutdown caused actual economic losses of 7 to 15 billion dollars, and if it really happens this time, the consequences will only be worse.

But for the cryptocurrency market, this matter is quite complicated. A halt means that key economic data (inflation reports, employment data) will be delayed, and the Federal Reserve and traders will have to make decisions with insufficient information. This uncertainty can lead to increased volatility in traditional financial markets. Interestingly, some funds that are averse to policy uncertainty may flow into cryptocurrencies seeking refuge—in this case, risk assets like Bitcoin may actually benefit.

From a market perspective, the halt may actually improve the liquidity environment in the short term. Some analysts believe this will provide upward momentum for risk assets, especially the price of Bitcoin.

If you are a crypto investor, this stage is worth adopting a "combination of near and far" strategy. On the short-term level, closely observe changes in market sentiment and capital flow. Once a standstill truly happens, trading opportunities will surely arise, but remember – keep your positions light, be cautious with leverage, and risk control is the top priority.

In the long run, the dysfunction of American politics has become a cyclical phenomenon. Each crisis objectively serves as a real-world endorsement for the decentralized concept of cryptocurrency. Instead of panicking, it is better to treat such events as stress tests for the resilience of investment portfolios, taking the opportunity to reflect on how to allocate assets to cope with increasingly frequent macro risks.