U.S. stocks rebounded strongly on Friday, shaking off the gloom from earlier in the week. The driving force behind this is quite clear – the escalating global geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have directly rewritten the logic of asset allocation.

The numbers from the past 12 months speak volumes. The dollar has depreciated by 9%, while gold has had its best year since 1979, with an astonishing increase. In contrast, European defense industry stocks have skyrocketed by 65% due to rising concerns. However, not all commodities have fared so well—oil prices have fallen to near a 10-year low, and cocoa has experienced its worst year on record.

The current focus is on the Federal Reserve. There may be a reduction in the pace of interest rate cuts next year. This logic sounds simple, but there is a variable in between: Trump plans to appoint a new chair of the Federal Reserve to replace Powell around May 2026. Trump has been looking for a candidate who is more inclined towards significant interest rate cuts, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is a popular candidate. Although he has not yet determined a specific time, he announced that it will be made "in the coming weeks."

In addition, the Supreme Court will make a ruling next year on the president's comprehensive tariff powers, which is another suspense.

What do these policy changes mean for investors in commodities? If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the dollar continues to depreciate, and changes occur on the supply side, then gold prices are expected to break through the $4,400 mark in the first half of 2026. Silver may pull back to the mid-$40s, but the real winners will be platinum and palladium – they are expected to lead the entire commodity market. In other words, if you have ever played the "silver squeeze," then the "silver flood" of 2026 is brewing.