#BTC The main reason for the encryption fall of 3 tonight is that a big dump has been difficult to sustain for the past 3 months, with fluctuations being the main trend. A deep fall will only occur if key support is broken✅

(Tonight's real-time fall due to + the trend over the past 3 months directly gives the conclusion, no nonsense)

1. The core reasons for tonight's ( 12.21) encryption fall (4 points are all solid evidence at present)

1. Technical breakdown triggers sell-off: BTC loses the key support at 85569, short-term bulls stop-loss and exit, coupled with nearly 17,700 BTC entering exchanges in the past 10 days, selling pressure directly hits the market.
2. Macroeconomic liquidity withdrawal: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is a "recession-prevention rate cut," with inflation at 3% not meeting expectations, and encryption being classified as a high-risk asset; the yen's interest rate hike triggers arbitrage funds to close positions, leading to funds withdrawing from encryption.
3. ETF funds continue to bleed: The net outflow of the US spot BTC ETF in recent months is 4.6 billion dollars, with buying pressure unable to support it, leading to a fall - funds out - and then a further fall in a negative feedback loop.
4. Year-end sentiment + leverage liquidation: Weekend liquidity is thin, retail investors are locking in profits and exiting at year-end, combined with the fact that the previous long leverage has not been fully cleared, a slight fall triggers a chain liquidation.

2. In the last 3 months from December to March (: there will not be a continuous fall, and the main tone will be oscillation.

✅ 3 supports that will not continue to fall (bullish cards)

1. Support levels: BTC 80,000 and ETH 2,500 are strong psychological support, with a low probability of falling below, institutions are likely to buy the dip at these two positions.
2. The fundamentals have not collapsed: ETH whales continue to accumulate + new addresses hit a new high, the long-term logic is still in place; expectations for BTC halving in 2026 are laying a foundation in advance.
3. Liquidity lag dividend: Global M2 will surge by 160% in 2025, with a correlation of 0.94 with BTC, a 90-day lag transmission, and there may be a capital inflow in January-February.

⚠️ There are only 2 situations that will lead to a continued fall (risk warning)

1. Key support breached: BTC effectively falls below 80,000, ETH falls below 2,500, which will open up deep fall space (BTC looks at 74,000)
2. Sudden negative news: The Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts + negative impacts from the regulation of US encryption will cause a double whammy that could collapse the trend.

3. Key tracking signals in the past 3 months (just focus on these 2)

▸ Bulls strengthen: BTC recovers 85569, ETH stands above 2749, ETF funds flow back
▸ Short selling intensifies: BTC breaks 80,000, ETH breaks 2,500, and the US stock market's Nasdaq experiences a big dump.