The recent big dump of Bitcoin appears to be caused by macro factors, but on-chain data points to a deeper crisis—massive capital flight.

The chain reaction caused by the closure of mining farms is most apparent. Over 400,000 mining machines in Xinjiang suddenly went offline, leading to a 17% single-day big dump in Bitcoin's hash rate, which is akin to a bolt from the blue for small and medium miners. The drop in hash rate means that the earnings before the difficulty adjustment plummeted sharply, and coupled with the simultaneous decline in Bitcoin prices, many miners have already sunk deep into a loss pit. Data shows that the outflow of Bitcoin from miner addresses surged by 35% month-on-month, reaching a near six-month high—this is not a proactive profit-taking, but a forced sell-off to stop losses.

But the panic goes far beyond that. The collective flight of early布局者 is even more concerning. Those OG investors who ambushed at the bottom and now have their accounts in the green immediately choose to cash out as soon as they see certain negative signals. Their large sell-offs directly drive down market prices, creating a negative feedback loop.

The retreat at the institutional level is becoming evident. Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $350 million in a single day, reaching a nearly three-month high, as market makers moved their positions to cold wallets to mitigate risk—this indicates that large funds are orderly withdrawing. Especially during U.S. stock trading hours, where most of the global institutional power is concentrated, the data showing an average floating loss of 40% among holders fully reflects the intensity of concentrated selling during this period.

On-chain data doesn't lie. When miners, veteran players, and institutional funds turn at the same time, market liquidity dries up, and prices lose support. This is the true core of this big dump.