12.22 Morning Market Analysis

BTC is currently still in the adjustment cycle at the 15-day line level.
The adjustment of the 10-day line has been completed after the MACD returned to zero this Thursday, with the corresponding structural support at 84,666–83,800. Therefore, I chose to take profits on short positions in that range on Thursday and provided a plan to attempt going long.

It needs to be clarified that the 15-day MACD has not yet returned to the zero axis, and its theoretical support is around 80,666. However, this does not mean that the market must retrace to 80,666 or lower in order to engage in a bullish position. The reason is simple: the market operates in multiple cycles simultaneously.

Currently, the price has simultaneously layered the possible reversal targets corresponding to the 12-hour level pullback, daily level pullback, and 2-day level pullback, focusing on the areas around 88,800, 89,400, and 90,850 in order.
The distance between these target levels is not large, but for short sellers, it is necessary to guard against upward impulse surges;
For bulls, first observe whether the price reaches these levels one by one according to the structure.

The core observation point for the short position remains at 90,750. If it is not broken, any rebound can still be seen as part of a short structure.
Once broken through and stabilized, 90,850 will become a key point on the way to the 93,000–94,000 area, as well as the golden ratio level of the drop from 94,555 to 84,408.

From the perspective of K-line operation rhythm, the current difficulty in the market lies in the overall bearish direction, but it is mixed with small upward trends; and after each rebound ends, it is preparing for the next round of adjustment.

It does not belong to the standard regulatory oscillation. The rapid decline last Wednesday and Thursday evening, as well as the rebound during the daytime the following day, did not strictly follow the common Fibonacci retracement ratios. It resembles a non-symmetrical rhythm of drop 100 → rebound 120 → drop 140 → rebound 120.

Therefore, going long in trading must be strictly risk-controlled. 83,000 is the structural bottom line for bulls and must not be broken. It is not advisable to rush into shorting in the short term; currently, it is not a one-sided decline. A more reasonable strategy is to wait for a rebound to the upper resistance range before entering. The market structure has indicated this, and the rest is up to discipline and patience. Shorting remains the main theme.