#数字资产市场洞察 Christmas Week Market Review: The candidate for the Fed Chair remains a suspense, and market liquidity and data releases need to be closely monitored.

This week's market rhythm needs to adjust. The US stock market will close early on Wednesday, and will be completely closed on Thursday for Christmas; the Hong Kong stock market will have a half-day session on Wednesday; the New York Stock Exchange will close at 02:00 Beijing time on December 25. During the holiday, liquidity generally tightens, and volatility risk needs to be watched closely.

The biggest suspense lies with the Fed Chairman. Trump has long had a candidate in mind, likely to be officially announced around Christmas. The probability distribution in the market is quite scattered—National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is leading with a 54% chance; this guy is a confidant of Trump and has always advocated for aggressive interest rate cuts, aligning closely with the White House's demands. Previous rumors about him had pushed the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%; former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh is in second place with a 21% chance; Fed Governor Christopher Waller follows with a 14% chance. Who ultimately takes the position will directly determine market expectations for interest rate cuts and the logic of asset valuations.

The data and events to focus on next week, I have compiled a list:

• Tuesday: The U.S. will release its Q3 GDP, personal consumption expenditures, and core PCE price index. Previously, the GDP growth rate was 2.8% (below expectations), and the personal consumption expenditure growth rate was 3.7% (the main driver of economic growth). This set of data will further confirm the true situation of inflation and economic resilience, and it is an important reference for the Fed's subsequent policies.

• Wednesday: The minutes of the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting will be released, allowing us to see their interest rate decision-making logic. Meanwhile, the US will release initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 20, which can reflect the tightness of the labor market;

• Thursday: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at the Japan Business Federation, which may reveal the direction of monetary policy adjustments. Japan's unemployment rate data for November will also be released at the same time to further validate the status of Japan's economic recovery.

In simple terms, the data bombardment before the holiday + political suspense will definitely lead to fluctuations in market sentiment.