The invisible regulators of global capital may be held in the hands of a group of Japanese housewives.

This is no joke. Japanese retail investors, who started from the foreign exchange market and have now deeply entered the cryptocurrency field, once changed the market through a classic arbitrage model: borrowing Japanese yen on a large scale in a long-term zero interest rate environment to invest in overseas high-yield assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S. stocks, etc.), earning the difference in exchange rates and interest rates. This "carry trade" system is astonishingly large - the cumulative overseas assets held by the Japanese private sector have reached 4.4 trillion dollars.

But the rules of the game suddenly changed. The Bank of Japan restarted its interest rate hike cycle after 30 years, while the market expects the Federal Reserve to enter a rate-cutting phase next year. This combination of one hike and one cut directly pierces through the past logic of making money. The interest rate spread has narrowed, borrowing costs have risen, and returns have significantly shrunk.

In the face of this situation, it is a natural market reaction for some funds to withdraw from U.S. stocks and bonds and flow back to Japan. However, the scale of this money—trillions—can create ripples in the global market. Traditional assets may experience significant volatility as a result, and it is basically unrealistic for the cryptocurrency market to remain unaffected.

However, from another perspective, this precisely validates the core narrative of non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum: as monetary policies of various countries diverge and the logic of traditional assets collapses, capital will more urgently seek "safe havens" that are not tied to a single economy. In the long run, this may become an opportunity for value rediscovery.

Sharp participants in the market will not only reassess mainstream currencies but also look for new opportunities within the ecosystems of mainstream public chains like Ethereum, especially assets that have strong community recognition.

Do you think this wave of capital adjustment will first pressure the market, or can it become a catalyst for the development of the market?