#预测市场平台与套利 Wait, I just saw the prediction data for Stable Tokens on Polymarket, and the probability of FDV exceeding 2 billion dollars skyrocketed to 85%? 🤯 What does that mean...

I heard that prediction markets are used to bet on various events, but I was still a bit confused when I actually looked at the data. According to this probability, the market seems quite optimistic about the performance on the first day of the Stable mainnet launch? But I would like to ask the experts, how is this 85% probability calculated? Does it mean that there is an 85% chance that the FDV will exceed 2 billion on the first day after the launch?

Also, what is the difference between prediction markets and buying coins on exchanges? It feels more like betting on events here, but is the risk also greater? I'm getting ready to try out this type of platform and wanted to ask if there are any pitfalls that beginners need to be aware of, like Gas fees and slippage—do these things also exist in prediction markets? 😅

It would be great if someone could help me explain what this 85% means. I feel like I'm still in the "watching the excitement" stage, haha.