#预测市场平台与套利 Seeing several directions for the market restart in 2026, I was reminded of a topic I recently discussed with my fren. Everyone is following the opportunities of prediction market platforms, and indeed, these types of applications performed remarkably well last year. However, I noticed a phenomenon—many people are focusing on the arbitrage opportunities and instead neglecting a more important issue: the security of these platforms and their own position tolerance.

The industry is moving from speculative bubbles to value return, which is a good thing. However, "return" itself implies the need for a more rational participation attitude. The prediction market seems logically clear, but in reality, there are many risk points — liquidity risk, platform risk, and even policy risk are all present. I have seen some people put a large proportion of their funds in because they saw short-term arbitrage opportunities, only to be caught off guard by a liquidity crisis or a black swan event.

Instead of chasing every market opportunity, it is better to ask yourself a few questions first: What percentage does this portion of funds occupy in my total assets? If this investment direction encounters problems, can my other allocations withstand it? In the long run, does this choice help with the safety of my assets?

Real opportunities are often left to those who are patient enough to do the foundational defense well.