#预测市场平台与套利 The fluctuation of the predicted probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket these days really makes one feel the repeated market sentiment! It rose from 30% to 40%, then fell back to 33%. Behind every data change are thousands of predictors voting with real money.

This is the charm of prediction markets - it is not a traditional poll or opinion, but rather uses economic incentive mechanisms to allow participants to "price" their real thoughts. If you dare to bet, you have to bear the cost of being wrong, and this mechanism naturally filters out more rational predictions.

From the information available, the uncertainty of Bitcoin's short-term trend is indeed increasing. The probability of falling below 80k has decreased from 37% to 24%, indicating that the market's concerns about downside risks are easing. However, the probability of reaching 100k fluctuates between 30-40%, reflecting the "variable moments" during this period before the end of the year—news, macro environment, and on-chain data could all potentially rewrite expectations.

What's more interesting is that these changes themselves create arbitrage opportunities. Smart participants will operate in the opposite direction when probabilities deviate significantly from the fundamentals, pushing prices back to rational levels. This is the advantage of decentralized prediction markets compared to traditional finance—information is more transparent, participation is more equitable, and incentives are more direct.

As the end of the year approaches, it will be interesting to keep an eye on these data.