Global Lithium Supply Chain 2024: Market Concentration and the Race for Battery Metal Dominance

The world’s lithium production landscape is undergoing rapid transformation. In 2024, global lithium output surged to 240,000 metric tons of lithium content—a notable jump from 204,000 MT in 2023—driven by escalating demand from electric vehicle manufacturers and energy storage systems. Yet this growth masks deeper market dynamics: production is heavily concentrated in just a few countries, creating critical vulnerabilities in the clean energy supply chain.

The Big Three Control Nearly 80% of Global Supply

Australia, Chile, and China dominate lithium extraction, collectively producing approximately 178,000 MT in 2024. Australia leads with 88,000 MT, though this represents a 4 percent decline from 2023’s 91,700 MT, signaling the sector’s sensitivity to market volatility. Chile follows with 49,000 MT—a remarkable 127 percent increase since 2020 when output stood at just 21,500 MT. China rounds out the trio with 41,000 MT, reflecting a 15 percent year-on-year growth as the nation pursues vertical integration across the entire battery value chain.

This concentration of supply creates both opportunity and risk. While Australia and Chile benefit from established mining infrastructure, China’s advantage lies elsewhere: the country produces over two-thirds of the world’s lithium-ion batteries and controls most global lithium-processing capacity. This asymmetry means even as raw material flows from Australia and Chile, final battery production remains dominated by Asian manufacturers.

The Volatility Paradox: Falling Prices, Rising Investment

The lithium market experienced significant turbulence in 2024. Carbonate prices dropped 22 percent amid oversupply, yet investment in new capacity continues unabated. Analysts project 2025 will see production cuts narrowing the surplus from 84,000 MT to 33,000 MT—a crucial rebalancing that could stabilize prices heading into 2026.

Despite near-term challenges, long-term fundamentals remain bullish. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts more than 30 percent year-on-year demand growth from EVs and energy storage in 2025 alone. Meeting this trajectory requires up to 150 new battery factories and US$116 billion in investments by 2030. China will maintain dominance in absolute volumes, but the EU and US are positioned for the fastest expansion rates, reshaping geopolitical supply chains.

The Emerging Tier: Zimbabwe, Argentina Lead Secondary Wave

Zimbabwe’s explosive growth deserves particular attention. Production jumped 47 percent year-over-year to 22,000 MT in 2024, with reserves climbing from 310,000 MT (2023) to 480,000 MT. This African nation’s lithium output has skyrocketed from just 800 MT in 2022—a sevenfold increase in two years. The catalyst: Zimbabwe’s 2022 ban on raw lithium exports, which forced foreign operators to build domestic processing capacity. As a result, lithium concentrate is now tracking to become Zimbabwe’s third-largest mineral export.

Argentina presents another compelling growth story. Production doubled to 18,000 MT in 2024 from 8,630 MT in 2023. With 4 million MT of reserves in the Lithium Triangle region, consultancy Eurasia Group projects Argentina could increase output tenfold by 2027. Rio Tinto’s US$2.5 billion Rincon lithium project expansion—targeting 60,000 MT of annual battery-grade lithium carbonate by 2028—will be pivotal to this trajectory. The deployment of direct lithium extraction technology represents a significant shift toward more efficient, water-conscious production methods.

North America’s Selective Participation

Canada and the United States present a contrasting picture to their Southern Hemisphere competitors. Canada produced only 4,300 MT in 2024, a 32 percent increase from 3,240 MT but representing minimal global market share. The nation’s government strategy emphasizes quality over quantity: C$1.5 billion in Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund investments target direct lithium extraction development in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Canada earned top ranking in Bloomberg NEF’s Global Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chain index—recognition of supply chain sophistication rather than raw output.

The US withheld production figures to protect proprietary company data, though output likely comes from Nevada brine operations (Albemarle’s Silver Peak facility) and Utah waste tailings processing. Multiple projects remain in development phases, including Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass and Standard Lithium’s Arkansas Smackover brine initiative, but commercial production timelines extend beyond 2025.

The European Outlier: Europe’s Lithium Ambitions Face Execution Challenges

Portugal represents Western Europe’s lithium production footprint with just 380 MT in 2024. Despite minimal output, reserves total 60,000 MT, and the Barroso project (Savannah Resources) is positioned as Western Europe’s first major lithium mine. However, the project faces a 2027 production target delay due to extended environmental approval processes and public opposition—a cautionary tale about Europe’s struggle to balance rapid battery supply chain localization with environmental governance standards.

Brazil rounds out the secondary producer tier with 10,000 MT in 2024, nearly double 2023’s 5,260 MT. The government’s planned US$2.1 billion investment through 2030 signals serious intent to scale production, while state initiatives like “Lithium Valley Brazil” attract multinational interest, including Chinese EV manufacturer BYD’s land acquisition in Minas Gerais.

What’s Driving 2025 Market Rebalancing?

Lithium demand dynamics will remain complex throughout 2025. Chinese EV sales set records in 2024, providing demand stability even as geopolitical tensions and rising tariffs on Chinese EVs create North American uncertainty. The sector faces a critical decade: mining production is projected to grow at a 7.2 percent compound annual growth rate through 2035, but this growth must accommodate both established and emerging producers.

For investors and supply chain observers, the inflection point is clear: concentration in Australia, Chile, and China will gradually diffuse as Argentina, Zimbabwe, and select North American projects reach commercial scale. This rebalancing is essential to prevent supply deficits and enable the energy transition.

The question is no longer whether alternative suppliers can challenge the current hierarchy—Zimbabwe and Argentina have already begun. Rather, the question is whether new entrants can scale fast enough to meet demand from a projected explosion in EV production and grid-scale energy storage deployment over the next decade.