The probability of breaking through the $100,000 mark again is quite limited, at only 8%. However, from a closer target perspective, the possibility of holding above $95,000 is much greater, with a predicted probability of 25%. It is worth noting that the market is also responding to downward risks—the probability of falling below $80,000 has been assessed at 15%. This set of data reflects a certain divergence in the market regarding the future of Bitcoin: on one hand, the voices optimistic about continued pumps are not in the majority, while on the other hand, many participants are preparing for a potential pullback. From the probability distribution, the current market expectation seems to focus more on a range of fluctuations between $80,000 and $95,000, with $100,000 appearing to be a psychological barrier that is difficult to cross.