$BTC ‌$BTC ‌Market Analysis

Over the past 3 days, BTC has fluctuated between **$87,600 and $90,586**, moving towards the lower end of the range. Daily RSI fell to **24.8**, indicating significant oversold conditions. Trading volume dropped in the last 24 hours, with price approaching **$87,604** (3-day low), and short-term momentum for a rebound remains weak.

News Focus

- **Four-year cycle and institutional inflows set the market tone; ETF flows confirm institutional preference**, recent analysis shows that while BTC price is limited, ETF inflows remain strong, with institutions buying on dips and reinforcing financialization;
- **Bitcoin Core developers respond to quantum attack threats, short-term risk remains minimal**, protocol security changes need 5-10 years; mainstream opinion sees little short-term impact but stresses long-term tech monitoring;
- **US regulatory stance shifts to more relaxed policies, fostering innovation**, Trump administration backs digital assets, and expected policy loosening is positive for the crypto ecosystem;
- **Aave's governance dispute, Solana's annual revenue surpasses Ethereum**, DeFi sector remains dynamic with ongoing governance shifts and structural adjustments.

 

Overall, the news tone is neutral to slightly positive, with institutions and policy support providing rebound potential.

Market Sentiment

- Overall crypto market shows **extreme fear** (**Crypto Fear & Greed Index 24**), with very low risk appetite.
- Social media and KOL opinions are split: some focus on ETF and institutional inflows, others on fund outflow, cycle top, and security risks.
- On-chain funds continue to flow out, with trading volume declining, showing institutions' cautious stance and weak short-term sentiment recovery.

Key Points to Watch

- **Whether trading volume will pick up**: Without increased volume, rebound potential stays limited;
- **Shifts in on-chain fund flows**: Large inflows or outflows have direct sentiment impacts; watch whales;
- **Macro policy changes (Fed & Trump policy shifts)**: Remain the main long-term factor, monitor regulatory trends closely;
- **Continuous institutional buying or selling**: ETF & MSTR actions directly shape confidence and liquidity;
- **Will sentiment move from division to consensus**: Growing divergence in views; only unified expectations can drive a trend shift.

 

Overall, Bitcoin is in a weak, sideways phase; short-term confidence is lacking, and future trends rely more on institutional flows and macro policy shifts.

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