Market Pullback: Understanding Different Types of Fades in Corn Trading

2025-12-23 15:18:07

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Corn futures experienced a subdued Monday session as market participants engaged in profit-taking activities before Tuesday’s anticipated USDA report. Most-active contracts declined modestly, ranging from fractional losses to 2-cent drops. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price retreated 1 1/4 cents, settling at $3.98 1/4 per bushel.

Export Performance Shows Mixed Signals

Recent Export Inspections data revealed corn shipments of 1.453 million metric tons (57.2 million bushels) for the week ending December 4—a 10.89% decline from the previous week, though up 36% compared to the same period last year. This variance demonstrates the typical types of fades seen in seasonal commodity markets throughout the year. Mexico dominated as the primary destination with 520,691 MT, followed by Japan at 310,828 MT and Taiwan at 81,209 MT.

Marketing year totals have climbed to 20.63 MMT (812.2 million bushels), reflecting a substantial 69.36% year-over-year increase. However, this strength stands in stark contrast to weaker near-term sales dynamics.

Sales Data Underwhelms Market Expectations

This morning’s USDA export sales report for the week ending November 6 painted a concerning picture, with only 979,525 MT of corn sales recorded. The figure underperformed market expectations of 1-2 million metric tons of bookings and marked the lowest point in the current marketing year, signaling potential demand softness ahead.

Looking Ahead to USDA Guidance

The monthly WASDE report arriving Tuesday carries significant implications for price direction. Bloomberg-surveyed analysts anticipate U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.145 billion bushels—a 9-million-bushel reduction from November’s assessment if confirmed.

Brazil’s crop narrative also demands attention. AgRural estimates the 2025/26 Brazilian corn production at 135.3 MMT, down 5.8 MMT year-over-year, while USDA’s preliminary figure stands at 131 MMT pending Tuesday’s potential revision.

Price Action Summary

Futures contract performance reflected the cautious tone: December 25 corn closed at $4.36 1/4 (down 1/2 cent), March 26 corn at $4.43 3/4 (down 1 cent), and May 26 corn at $4.51 1/4 (down 1 cent). Nearby cash prices matched the weakness at $3.98 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.

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