Looking at this wave of Christmas market, I think many retail investors have fallen into the trap. BTC is now repeatedly hovering around 87700, with a small bullish line testing 90000 on the 4-hour chart. But looking closely at the recent market signals, this rebound is probably not that simple.

From the perspective of capital, the situation is indeed a bit strange. Last night, the ETF experienced a continuous net outflow of 140 million USD, with major institutions like Fidelity and Grayscale leading the way in reducing their positions. On-chain data is even more exaggerated — over 90,000 BTC were sold to exchanges by long-term holders. In other words, big funds are secretly offloading while claiming to join retail investors in buying in.

The K-line technical indicators also reveal some tricks. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is firmly pressing the price down, although the RSI shows some improvement, it has not yet formed a strong breakout signal. The green bars of the MACD are still shrinking, and looking at these indicators together, it is clearly the rhythm of "false rebound and true unloading." A couple of days ago, a fan of mine went long at 88500, and I advised him to cut half of his position at that time. This tactic was actually seen once last week—pulled up to 90000 during the Asian and European sessions, and as soon as the US market opened, it was slammed back down to 88000. The methods of the institutions are quite routine, specifically targeting retail investors who "want to make quick money during Christmas."

History will repeat itself. On Christmas Eve of 2021, when BTC surged to 58,000, the public opinion was also very excited, with various voices shouting "the Christmas rally will break through 60,000." What happened? On Christmas Day, it plummeted directly to 42,000, trapping a large number of retail investors who had chased the high. The current situation is actually more complicated than it was back then.

There is currently a buildup of 24 billion positions in the options market, with 85,000 put options and 100,000 call options lined up, creating a massive pressure plate for chips. Institutions can basically know the likely direction in advance through the configuration of these derivative positions, and then lay out their strategies in the spot market ahead of time. Retail investors are still looking at candlesticks wondering "should I bottom fish?", unaware that large funds have already calculated the rhythm based on the configurations in the options market.

My view is that the likelihood of this rebound at 87700 is more about preparing for the subsequent decline. Institutions either pull you in to take your position or they are performing a reverse operation before the last dip in accumulation. In either case, the risk for retail investors to go long unilaterally is relatively high. As for the Christmas cyclical rebound, just listen to it, but don't take it as a real signal to get rich.