The current Bitcoin market presents an extreme opposing situation.

The bullish voices are very loud. CoinShares provided a conservative forecast of $110,000 to $140,000 in its latest report, while more aggressive analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve really "gets anxious", BTC could surge to $170,000. Galaxy Research is even more exaggerated; they think that reaching $250,000 by the end of the year is not a fantasy. Data compiled by institutions shows that breaking through $100,000 has become a consensus expectation in the market.

But the reality is that the temperature is completely different. Market sentiment has dropped to the bottom, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index once touched the extreme fear zone of 10 — this is a deadly signal. Reports from exchanges bluntly state: the market has "lost direction", and there are no signs of a rebound by the end of the year. Technical charts are also speaking, as Bitcoin has lost the support level of $96,000 to $98,000, officially forming a correction pattern with a terrifying head pressure.

Behind this confrontation is a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Bitcoin is no longer the investment hotspot for retail investors. Messari's perspective is quite sobering: 2025 will be a watershed moment where Bitcoin completely "goes its own way" from other crypto assets, as it is being repositioned as a serious "crypto asset" rather than a gambling chip. This means that the upcoming trends will not be dictated by emotions but will be dominated by deeper macro forces.